ArsGeek

As I keep reading about OnLive, and watch videos of it in action I think back to a very insightful quote:

“No matter what the level of your ability, you have more potential than you can ever develop in a lifetime.” -James T Mccay

Although McCay was talking about human beings, I think the quote rings true for OnLive. Its performance will unlikely catch up to its full potential. Before we get too philosophic about things, I should probably explain what OnLive is.

Announced at GDC 2009 (Game Developer’s Conference), the OnLive service has really been turning heads in the gaming industry. OnLive is a cloud computing service, only it runs video games. So, at its core OnLive will allow people to play games through their systems on a browser plug-in. The idea of it is astounding. This basically makes hardware spec requirements obsolete; everything but a fast connection that is.

When OnLive launches this is how it will work. You’ll sign up for the OnLive service, which will undoubtedly have a monthly subscription attached to it. You’ll download the OnLive browser plug-in, and from there you’ll be able to stream games to your computer through their service. We’re not talking Flash games, or old console games but new release titles. The great thing is that none of it will require any of your machine’s power to run. Here’ a video from IGN, of Crysis running through the OnLive service…

Some other cool features with OnLive is that you’ll have the option of directly receiving the service on your TV. If you buy their micro-console, you can directly input the stream to your television set. Nothing else is required. Except a mouse-and-keyboard, or the OnLive controller. The other feature that will be available is something called Brag-Clips. They work like a DVR setup, you’ll be able to record 10-second videos of the game that you’re playing.

A large number of publishers have already signed on to have their games available through OnLive: EA, Take-Two, Ubisoft, Epic, Atari, Codemasters, Warner Bros., THQ and Eidos.

Ok, I stated in the beginning of the post that this service is unlikely to meet the potential it presents. Which is sad for me to say, because I’m beaming over it. The first problem is bandwidth, and connection issues. I know that most people reading this, and myself included have got killer broadband connections. Having a 5/Mps connection might not be something too advanced in our minds, but it’s the entire consumer base that matters. OnLive has stated that a 1.5/Mps connection will be required to run games in 480p, with 5/Mps required for a 720p signal. While broadband is making its way into more homes everyday, not everyone has it.

The problems don’t stop with the user’s connection. I don’t think very many of us realize how much bandwidth is required to send a gaming signal out. Even with an outstanding compression rate. The videos that have been showed off are incredible, but what happens when more than a thousand people are streaming games in? then millions? That’s a lot of strain to put on a network. Let alone the machines that have to physically run the game that’s being played.

Even with connection issues, the service could take off if the price is right. The keyword in that sentence is “if”. The largest challenge for OnLive will be fixing on a price point that appeals to consumers, while at the same time making sure they have enough money to keep the service running. That’s a tricky balance to consider. And one that I think is the make, or break point. These are figures that I came up with, none based on any fact but just to give you something to think about…

Cost of OnLive Service: $50
Cost of a full game: $35
Cost of Micro-Console option: $80

Ok, so let’s say you buy a single game a month. What would your first year costs look like? $1,100. That’s quite a large budget for just purchasing a single game a month. Maybe some months you don’t even buy a game at all. Of course, a rental service would be an adequate means of alleviating the financial burden.

I want to say this again though, this is all speculation and brain storming on my part. OnLive hasn’t announced anything about pricing structure yet.

The more I think about OnLive, the more I keep thinking of the Sega Channel service from back in the mid 90’s. To me, that was one of the most ‘ahead of its time’ ideas ever in video gaming. It was a service that transferred game data through a cable outlet to your Genesis. It provided gamers with close to 50 games a month, and every month more games appeared. It was amazing. Yet, the consumer base didn’t get into it. It was too advanced for its time.

I get that same feeling when I think about OnLive. Here’s hoping I’m wrong though.